Seasonal Crop Shire Yield Forecasts
The Seasonal Crop Shire Yield Forecasts are estimates of cereal yields for whole shires.
- Who this tool is for
- Questions this tool answers
- What this tool does
- Inputs
- Outputs
- Reliability
- History
- Support available
- Where to get it
- Cost
Read about our selection process for including tools on Climate Kelpie
Who this tool is for
The forecasts are at the shire scale, so are useful to decision-makers at regional, state and national level, such as government agencies, bulk handlers of grain, feedlot companies, fertiliser companies, and the insurance industry.
Questions this tool answers
- What is the progressive seasonal outlook for cereals production for this shire in the context of rainfall to date?
- How does the likely shire yield of cereals this year compare to other years?
What this tool does
The forecasts are probabilistic cereal crop yield predictions for whole shires. They are determined by combining:
- crop simulation models based on estimates of available soil moisture and rainfall to date
- climate forecasts – based on current Southern Oscillation Index conditions
The forecasts can be used for:
- forward buying or selling of commodities and deciding on future contracts
- shifting of resources (bulk handling of grain) from one region to another
- making policy decisions such as the evaluation of Exceptional Circumstances
- assessing the likely crop grade for the coming season
Inputs
The forecasts are presented as reports. No inputs are required.
Outputs
Seasonal Crop Shire Yield Forecasts are in the form of reports showing graphs of the likely yield per shire and trajectories compared to previous years.
Australia-wide crop reports are free to download (PDF) from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Monthly seasonal crop outlooks for a variety of crops in Queensland are available for free download (PDF) from Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries. On the 'Broadacre field crops' page, under 'Crop information' select a crop (e.g. barley, chickpeas, sorghum, wheat) and then click on ‘Seasonal crop outlook’. See Figure 1 for an example.
Reliability
The forecasts are partly based on the Southern Oscillation Index. As the climate changes, these climate projections will become less reliable.
The forecasts are not designed for use at the paddock or farm scale because they do not include paddock details such as soil type, starting soil water and time of sowing.
History
This forecasting tool was developed by Andries Potgieter, Graeme Hammer and Al Doherty from the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit
Support available
Contact Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries with questions about the monthly seasonal crop outlooks for Queensland.
Where to get it
Download monthly seasonal crop outlooks for Queensland from Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries. On the 'Broadacre field crops' page, under 'Crop information' select a crop (e.g. barley, chickpeas, sorghum, wheat) and then click on ‘Seasonal crop outlook’.
Paper copies are available from the Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries Business Information Centre.
For information about the forecasting tool, contact Andries Potgieter, Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries
Email: andries.potgieter@dpi.qld.gov.au
Phone: 07 4688 1417
Cost
Monthly seasonal crop outlooks from Queensland Primary Industries and Fisheries are free.