PROJECT 3: ENHANCING THE ACCESS-S MODEL

The aim
ACCESS-S is a new seasonal forecasting climate model. It gives forecasts with a resolution of 60-kilometre grid squares – an improvement on the 250-kilometre grid squares of before.

This project aims to find and reduce the main errors in the model that impair the quality of seasonal forecasts for farmers. The key biases in the model that we will look at relate to convection in the Indian Ocean and tropical regions.

What it will deliver
We will:

  1. create tools that show us the systematic errors in the climate model that influence seasonal predictions
  2. find previous forecasts that show us where convection reduced those forecasts’ accuracy
  3. find changes to convection calculations that reduce forecast errors
  4. create case studies that demonstrate how the improvements can help farmers
  5. keep people updated on the research by documenting and publishing what we know.

Project overview
We want to improve ACCESS-S by changing how convection is calculated in the climate model. We need to test the potential changes then implement the ones that work best for the next version of ACCESS-S.

Doing this work will increase the forecasts generated by ACCESS-S, particularly forecasts with longer lead times.

Reducing atmospheric biases in the Indian Ocean and related tropical regions will improve predictions for the southern and western parts of Australia that are directly affected by the Indian Ocean.

This increased forecast accuracy will give everyone more useful predictions and an increased uptake by, and benefit to, farmers.

Other projects within the Rural R&D For Profit program

Project 1: Valuing the forecast
Project 2: Using the forecast