YIELD PROPHET®

Yield Prophet® is an online crop production tool that helps grain growers match crop inputs to potential yield, for a given season, to maximise profit and minimise climate and soil water risk.

WHO THIS TOOL IS FOR

Dryland and irrigation grain growers throughout Australia.
All major varieties of wheat, barley, canola and sorghum, and to a lesser extent, oats and chickpeas are supported. Peanuts are also available.

QUESTIONS THIS TOOL ANSWERS
  • Given the seasonal conditions to date, and historic climatic conditions, what is the yield potential of my crop under current management and with unlimited nitrogen supply?
  • What is the likelihood of my crop being affected by frost, heat shock and/or water logging?
  • How does the yield potential of my crop change as crop inputs (e.g. nitrogen) and agronomic decisions vary?
  • Where in the soil profile are my crop resources and what affect will that have on the yield potential of my crop?
  • How is climate change likely to affect my yield potential and how should I respond to this?
WHAT THIS TOOL DOES

Yield Prophet® is a commercialised web version of an internationally recognised simulator of agricultural systems, APSIM.  Yield Prophet mimics the biophysical process of crop growth and development to allow users to match their crop inputs to the season potential.

It incorporates:

  • soil test results
  • climatic conditions to date within the current season
  • crop management actions, and
  • historic climate data

Yield Prophet models the current crop growth and development based on the seasons climatic conditions. Each day the tool then uses each year of climate record (1957 to the current year) to model a potential yield. This then gives 60 years of climate data which is then ordered to show the likely yield range for the crop.

The result is a probability of achieving a specific crop yield which helps users to match their inputs to this potential. The aim being “maximise profits in good seasons and minimise losses in the poor.”

INPUTS

Yield Prophet® combines 6 key crop-growing components:

  • a soil test prior to planting. It is now possible to set up a paddock without soil testing.
  • a soil characterisation
  • historical and current climate data for the nearest Bureau of Meteorology weather station, or current climate data from your own weather station (optional)
  • paddock-specific rainfall data recorded by you or your own weather station (optional)
  • crop details, and
  • a record of fertiliser and irrigation applications during the growing season
OUTPUTS

Yield Prophet® produces a set of comprehensive reports based on your crop management and input scenarios, in- and out-of-season.

In-season reports:

  • Crop report: the most commonly used report – various outputs relating to individual crops. The snapshot report tells you about: potential yield range; available water and nitrogen; incidence of nitrogen and water stress; estimated and forecast progress of the crop; probability and incidence of water logging, frost and heat shock; and climate forecasts and their effect on yield.
  • Nitrogen comparison report: effects of different nitrogen application decisions (quantity/timing) on yield
  • Nitrogen profit report: profits according to nitrogen management decisions
  • Irrigation comparison report: effects of irrigation decisions (quantity) on yield
  • Irrigation profit report: profits according to irrigation management decisions

Out-of-season reports:

  • Sowing by variety: effects of different sowing dates and cultivars on likely crop yield
  • Sowing opportunity: effects of sowing date on yield, and frost and heat shock risk
  • Climate change: potential effects of climate change on crop yields in 2030
  • Climate adaptation: compare crop potential under climate change using current practices and alternatives

View sample reports by logging onto this website as a visitor – click ‘View Trial Paddocks’.

RELIABILITY

Fully supported by a dedicated team of agricultural scientists and IT specialists, Yield Prophet® is a decision support tool with modelling outputs available in a daily timestep.  Fully supported decision support tool with daily interaction available to all users.

APSIM, the model behind Yield Prophet, is recognised as a highly advanced simulator of agricultural systems. APSIM is continuously developing, with new capability added in regular releases of official versions. Its development and maintenance is underpinned by rigorous science and software engineering standards.

Accuracy is heavily influenced by the how well the initial soil test results and soil characterisation match your crop production areas.

It is possible to use Yield Prophet® without undertaking soil testing, but in some cases accuracy can be reduced.

Major crop varieties are supported.

Results are applicable at the paddock or point scale.

HISTORY

Yield Prophet® has been supported through the Grains Research & Development Corporation, the Department of Agriculture and Food and the Managing Climate Variability program.

Research, development and support services are provided collaboratively by BCG, (the Birchip Cropping Group), Square V and CSIRO.

SUPPORT AVAILABLE

Yield Prophet® is provided as an online subscription service by BCG.

A coordinator provides online and phone help to subscribers.

Email Yield Prophet coordinator: yieldprophet@bcg.org.au

WHERE TO GET IT

Subscribe online: Yield Prophet

COST

Subscription is based on number of paddocks. The cost covers log-in online and technical support.

IS THERE A CLIMATE-RELATED DECISION-SUPPORT TOOL YOU’D LIKE TO SUGGEST?

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