FORECASTS4PROFIT

The Forecasts4Profit and Local Climate Tool provide you an opportunity to access links and information to better understand the effect of the climate drivers on your region. The Local Climate Tool enables you to further analyse these effects on towns in the GRDC southern region.

WHO THIS TOOL IS FOR

Forecasts4Profit website
Anyone interested in learning more about the different climate drivers and their effect on Australian climate.

Local Climate Tool
Anyone in the south eastern GRDC region (South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and southern New South Wales).

QUESTIONS THIS TOOL ANSWERS

Forecasts4Profit

  • What are the different climate drivers that affect Australia?
  • What are the relevant website links for climate forecast tools, models and products?
  • How well do I understand climate driver phases? This can be done via testing your knowledge in the online quiz.
  • How are other producers using seasonal climate forecasts to manage their climate risk?

Local Climate Tool

  • How has historical rainfall for a location been affect by different climate driver phases over the last 120 year?
WHAT THIS TOOL DOES

Forecasts4Profit

This website provides links and information to current and relevant material about seasonal climate forecasting and climate drivers.

Local Climate Tool

This tool aims to show longer term rainfall records for selected locations where longer term record exist. It also seeks to show how the climate drivers such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole have influenced seasonal rainfall in the past.
The rainfall data dating back to 1900 are interpolated values from the Queensland Government’s Department of Environment and Science SILO database. For more information please see SILO climate data.

The classification of ENSO and IOD years comes from:

  • Bureau of Meteorology classifications for ENSO years Australian rainfall patterns during El Niño and La Niña events,
  • BoM classifications for Indian Ocean Dipole events post 1960 and the classifications of Meyers et al 2007. The Years of El Niño, La Niña, and Interactions with the Tropical Indian Ocean, and
  • modified by Ummenhofer et al 2011 pre 1960 What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts?
INPUTS

Forecasts4Profit
No inputs required, just explore the site.

Local Climate Tool
To use the tool, select a location, a climate driver phase and a time period in months from the drop-down list.

OUTPUTS

Forecasts4Profit

  • links to the extensive The Break publication list
  • information about the ‘Using Seasonal Forecasts’ project brought to you by GRDC and partners
  • case studies of growers using seasonal climate forecasts in their business
  • commonly used website links for climate forecast tools, models and products
  • use the ‘test your knowledge’ tab to watch some entertaining Very Fast Break flashbacks which explain past seasonal forecasts and how it affects our region

Local Climate Tool

  • The local climate tool allows you to look at the last 120 years of rainfall history for a variety of locations across south-eastern Australia, and to explore how past climate driver phases have affected your local seasons.

Figure 1. Tercile pie chart for past La Niña years for Bendigo, Victoria.

Pie charts are available for each location, climate driver phase and monthly time period. The pie chart shows how the odds of being in the wetter or drier third of years, which can change depending on which climate driver is in an active phase.

Figure 2. Decile bars for past climate driver phases for Bendigo, Victoria.

The decile bars show haw past rainfall deciles are influenced by various climate driver phases and combinations. If you are not sure what a decile is, the ‘?’ button in the top left hand corner provides a description.

Figure 3. Historical rainfall totals for a selected month period since 1900 for Bendigo, Victoria.

This bar graph shows the total rainfall for the period (in this case August to October). The colour coding highlights which climate driver phases were active each year. When you hover your mouse over individual years you will see the rainfall totals and also the climate driver phase that was active each year.

Figure 4. Historical rainfall totals for a selected month period since 1900 ordered lowest rainfall years to highest rainfall years for Bendigo, Victoria.

This graph shows the same data as Figure 3 but ordered from lowest rainfall to highest rainfall years for the time period selected.

Figure 5. Historical rainfall totals since 1900 for Bendigo, Victoria.

Figure 5 is the same as figure 3, but instead of total rainfall for a month period, is shows annual rainfall totals.

Figure 6. Historical rainfall totals since 1900 ordered from lowest rainfall to highest rainfall for Bendigo, Victoria.

This graph is the same as figure 5 but ordered from lowest to highest annual rainfall year.

Figure 7. Rainfall anomaly graph for annual rainfall for Bendigo, Victoria.

This figure shows annual rainfall years above or below the long-term average.

Figure 8. Rainfall anomaly graph for the selected month period, Bendigo, Victoria.

This figure shows rainfall for the selected month period and how they compare to the long-term average.

Table 1. Historical years when the selected climate driver phase was active, with the given monthly rainfall totals.

This table shows the years that were classified as having an active climate driver phase, highlighting the monthly rainfall totals. The furthest right-hand column gives a total for the monthly period that was selected. The years are sorted from wettest period selected to the driest period selected.

RELIABILITY
Forecasts4Profit

Information has been collated by members of Agriculture Victoria and SARDI who have extensive experience in the area.

Local Climate Tool

The rainfall data dating back to 1900 are interpolated values from the Queensland Government’s Department of Environment and Science SILO database. For more information please see SILO climate data.

The classification of ENSO and IOD years comes from:

  • Bureau of Meteorology classifications for ENSO years Australian rainfall patterns during El Niño and La Niña events,
  • BoM classifications for Indian Ocean Dipole events post 1960 and the classifications of Meyers et al 2007. The Years of El Niño, La Niña, and Interactions with the Tropical Indian Ocean, and
  • modified by Ummenhofer et al 2011 pre 1960 What causes southeast Australia’s worst droughts?

HISTORY
Forecasts4Profit

This website was produced as part of the ‘Using Seasonal Forecasts’ extension project brought to you by GRDC and partners.

Local Climate Tool

This rainfall analysis tool was developed as part of the GRDC South “Using Seasonal Forecasts” extension project (April 2018 – Feb 2020). See more about the project here: https://forecasts4profit.com.au/About

Graph design concepts were provided by Peter Hayman, Dale Grey, Darren Ray, Graeme Anderson & CeRDI.

SUPPORT AVAILABLE

For support contact the.break@ecodev.vic.gov.au

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