CLIMATE ANALOGUES EXPLORER

This tool was developed to help visualise what a future change in the climate would mean for a specific location by identifying another location that has the same climate as a projected future scenario. It is designed to be the first step in visualising what a change in the climate may mean for your property. It doesn’t give you detailed or complete picture of climate change or of other important factors, so use of this tool should be followed up by further analysis.

WHO THIS TOOL IS FOR

The tool was developed by Climate Change in Australia for anyone who wants to visualise what a change in climate looks like. If you’re considering climate adaption strategies on your property and want an indication of the likely future climate, this tool provides an engaging first step in starting to consider climate change.

QUESTIONS THIS TOOL ANSWERS
  • What will the climate of my region be like in the future?
  • What is a geographic analogue of what this climate looks like?
WHAT THIS TOOL DOES

Using current average rainfall and temperatures, the tool matches the future climate of your region with the current climate of another region. The tool matches the annual average and a measure of seasonality in temperature and rainfall and can use manually entered changes or pre-set scenarios based on climate modelling.

For example, the future climate of Melbourne at the end of the century under a high emissions scenario is projected to be more like the current climate of Dubbo in New South Wales in one plausible scenario (hotter and drier). Locating a region with a current climate that your own region may have in the future will help you visualise expected climatic change and start to make more-informed decisions to adapt to any changes.

INPUTS

You select your location either on a map (which shows the locations available in the tool) or from the ‘select locality’ drop-down list.

Once you have selected your location, you can either:

  • use the temperature and rainfall sliders to select a future temperature or rainfall change scenario (e.g. at 1.5°C temperature increase and -10 per cent rainfall change), or
  • use the ‘preset scenario’ settings to automatically set the temperature and rainfall change sliders to values that match possible future climate scenarios. Settings include:
    • cluster (from a list of NRM clusters: e.g. Central Slopes, Murray Basin)
    • emissions scenario (e.g. an ambitious mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 through to a high scenario RCP 8.5)
    • time period you are interested in viewing (e.g. 2030, 2050)
    • description of changes sampling the available modelling (either ‘maximum consensus’, ‘hottest and driest’ or ‘least hot and wettest’).

Advanced options are also available, allowing you to:

  • include or exclude particular seasons, separately for temperature and rainfall
  • adjust the tolerances for a successful match
  • include or exclude rainfall seasonality (proportion of summer + winter rainfall that falls in summer)
  • include or exclude continentality (difference in summer and winter temperature)
OUTPUTS
The tool searches the database of current climates – the average maximum temperature and rainfall for your selected area and season – to find all locations that match these projected changes. The map will show lines connecting your location to areas where the current climate matches the future predicted climate of your location.
RELIABILITY
Some aspects of local climate are not considered by the tool, such as frost days and other local climate influences, radiation and soil types. For this reason, using solely analogues in planning is not advised, without also considering more detailed information from other sources.
HISTORY

The Climate Analogues Explorer was developed by Climate Change in Australia, in collaboration with CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

SUPPORT AVAILABLE

For more information and support for this tool, contact CSIRO. Advice on using climate change projections is also available on the Climate Change in Australia website.

WHERE TO GET IT

The Climate Analogues Explorer is available on the Climate Change in Australia website.

COST

Free

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