NEW SOUTH WALES

CLIMATE DRIVERS IN NEW SOUTH WALES

In New South Wales, all the Climatedogs are in action, delivering a highly variable climate.

Ridgy is great at blocking rain-bearing fronts. He lets cold fronts through much more in winter, and brings fine and dry weather in summer.

Enso herds moisture from the Pacific Ocean. When there’s an El Nino, he causes less rainfall. During La Ninas, he chases greater amounts of moist tropical air across Australia.

Indy herds moisture from the Indian Ocean, bringing less or more rain in the last half of the year, depending on whether he’s feeling positive or negative.

Sam mostly loves to play in southern NSW – affecting rainfall in winter, and sometimes gets working in spring and summer to bring more rainfall eastern parts to the state.

Eastie scampers along the south-east coast of Australia, can go into action overnight, and his favourite seasons are autumn and winter. He can cause strong winds, heavy rains and lots of rough weather

Mojo can influence rainfall in NSW, especially if one of his moisture waves feeds into a timely weather event.

FUTURE CLIMATE IN NSW

NSW’s climate in the decades ahead will be different from what it was in the past. We can expect changes in: temperature, extreme temperatures, rainfall patterns and severe weather.

You may need to modify your farming practices to manage the risks presented by the change in climate.

General threats for agriculture across southern Australia include:

  • decline in productivity due to increased drought and bushfires
  • crop yields benefiting from warmer conditions and higher carbon dioxide levels, but vulnerable to reduced rainfall
  • greater exposure of stock and crops to heat-related stress and disease
  • less winter chilling for fruit and nuts
  • southern migration of some pests
  • potential increase in the distribution and abundance of some exotic weeds
  • shortening of growing season across the broadacre cropping region
TEMPERATURE

It is projected that there will be an 0.7°C increase in maximum temperatures by 2030, and an expected increase of 2.1°C by 2070. Minimum temperatures are expected to increase by 0.7°C by 2030, and up to 2.1°C by 2070.

The number of hot days will increase, while the number of cold nights will decrease.

The north-west of the state is expected to experience the greatest increase in average temperatures over the summer period.

EXTREME TEMPERATURES

More hot days are expected for NSW, but different regions will be affected differently.

North-west NSW is expected to experience an additional 10-20 hot days by 2030, and 40 additional hot days by 2070. Projections show that this would mean a third of the year would consist of days with temperatures above 35°C in north-west NSW.

For the areas east of the Great Dividing Range, the number of hot days are expected to increase by 20 days per year by 2070.

RAINFALL

Spring and winter rainfall is expected to decrease on average for NSW, with some regional variation.

For regions west of the Great Dividing Range and in southern NSW, Murray Murrumbidgee and the South East and Tablelands regions, it is expected there will be a decrease in spring rainfall.

While areas along the north-east coast from Newcastle to the Queensland border spring, rainfall is projected to increase.

It is expected, both in the near and far future, that the quantity of autumn rainfall will increase across NSW.

SEVERE WEATHER

By 2030, it is projected that an increase fire danger will occur for summer and spring. Regions will be affected differently, with higher severity expected in the western region.

NEW SOUTH WALES CLIMATE EXPERTS

JON WELSH
CottonInfo
0458 215 335 or email

ALISTER HAWKSFORD
Bureau of Meteorology

NEW SOUTH WALES CASE STUDIES

ANDREW CARMICHAEL
COOLAMON, RIVERINA REGION
GRAINS

ANDREW WATSON
BOGGABRI, NORTHERN TABLELANDS
COTTON AND GRAINS

GILLIAN SANBROOK
WYMAH VALLEY, SOUTH WEST SLOPES
BEEF

JOHN IVE
YASS VALLEY, SOUTHERN TABLELANDS
BEEF AND SHEEP

LACHLAN BULL
DENILIQUIN, RIVERINA
GRAINS AND SHEEP

LES & ALICE ROBERTS
DYERS CROSSING, MID NORTH
BEEF

LYNNE STRONG
JAMBEROO, ILLAWARRA
DAIRY

ROB HOLMES
MOREE, NORTH WEST PLAINS
COTTON

SAM HAMILTON
RYLSTONE, CENTRAL TABLELANDS
BEEF AND SHEEP

DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS