Forecasting weather and climate is a tricky business. The four main climate drivers — the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) — interact in complex ways. Their influence drives local climate and weather outcomes in different ways across Australia. Because of the … Continue reading What do forecasts really mean?