The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) looks set to remain as the dominant climate driver for Australia over the coming months. So what does this mean for Spring? A positive IOD typically brings ‘Below Average’ rainfall as well as warmer than average days to much of central and southern Australia. There is also an increased risk of frost and fire for the south east of Australia.

Rainfall Roundup

In August, very dry conditions again persisted across large parts of Southern and central Australia, particularly in the Murray Darling Basin. Timely rain only fell in parts of Western Australia (WA) and in the south east of Australia (Fig. 1). Winter was one of the driest on record with only parts of Southern Victoria and Tasmania benefiting from ‘Above Average’ rainfall delivered by winter cold fronts (Fig. 2).

Rainfall Forecast

The BoM’s ACCESS model suggests ‘Very Much Below Average’ rainfall is likely over Spring for large parts of Australia including much of eastern, central and northern Australia (Fig. 3).

For the month of September, it is likely to be drier over most of Australia expect for western Tasmania and southwest WA where a wetter than average September is likely (Fig. 3).

At this time of year accuracy for the three-month forecast is moderate to high, except for parts of WA which are moderate.

Temperature Roundup

In August, maximum temperatures remained ‘Above Average’ for much of WA and the east coast regions of Australia, but parts of Victoria and central Australia experienced ‘Average’ to ‘Below Average’ daytime temperatures (Fig. 4). Minimum temperatures were ‘Very Much Below Average’ to ‘Average’ across large parts of Australia but parts of WA and QLD were ‘Above Average’ (Fig. 5).

Temperature Forecast

The BoM’s ACCESS model forecast suggests ‘Above Average’ maximum temperatures are likely across most of Australia over the next three months, with the expectation of Tasmania which is more likely to be ‘Average’ to ‘Below Average’ (Fig. 6).  

Minimum temperatures are likely to be “Above Average” in the north and west of Australia for Spring (Fig. 7). However, in September cooler than average temperatures are expected in the tropics (Fig. 7). 

With below average rainfall forecast and therefore clearer skies, nights are likely to be cooler than average in parts of the south east and therefore increased risk of frost in susceptible areas (Fig. 7).

At this time of year accuracy for the three-month forecast is moderate to high for the maximum temperatures and moderate to high across most of Australia for the minimum temperatures (except for parts of QLD, NT and WA).  

Climate and Water Outlook Videos

The Bureau of Meteorology releases regular outlook videos, covering all this information. Watch the most recent video below.

RECENT POSTS

• SAM goes up, SAM goes down— southern Australia’s climate gets turned all around
• Visualising the impact of climate drivers in your backyard
• Another dry monsoon prompts research into changing summer rainfall patterns
• Keeping a watchful eye on the seasons pays off for this farming family
• Same, same, but different – the two faces of El Niño
• Efficiency essential to business success
• Take a load off your mind with the Cattle Heat Load Toolbox
• Extreme event early-warning forecasts tested under local spotlight
• Indian Ocean in the climate ‘driver’s seat’ for 2019
• The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer
• App puts current CliMate into perspective
• When it comes to rainfall – all bets are off
• Regional ‘Climate Guides’ to inform on-farm risk management
• Soil moisture monitors lift the veil on the root zone
• Climate forecasting drives a land-centred approach to cattle farming
• Better decisions flow as climate skills grow
• Obituary – Barry James White
• Diversification reduces risk in a changing environment
• Dairy cows beat the heat with free alert service
• New understanding of the drivers behind hot and dry conditions over Australia’s north-east