Northern Australian Climate Program: Climate and Weather Newsletter (issued Thursday 07/03/19) – Next MJO Draws Nearer

Greetings all,

Here is this week’s review of relevant weather and seasonal forecast systems produced by major global agencies.

Updated information, issued Thursday 7/3/19 covering shorter-term weather forecasts, monthly and seasonal climate forecasts, to cover cattle (and sugar) production regions on an advisory basis and as a follow-up to the Managing for Climate Workshops and similar (but other industry regions are also now included as an addition in the text). In effect, this means we are providing review information for the short, medium and seasonal (longer term) periods.

The next MJO is most likely due in the next two weeks. It currently appears to be just off the NW Western Australian coast and moving east…some models are indicating extensive rain over Gulf areas and western Cape York after about 15/3. Please also check with BoM daily forecasts as this date and period comes closer.
The SOI is still falling and is -14.6 (minus 14.6) as a 30-day average.
Many coupled ocean-atmosphere models are indicating a renewal of El Niño conditions from late southern hemisphere autumn onwards, to continue through 2019/2020.
In terms of individual daily forecasts, please refer to BoM for more up-to-date forecasts on a day to day basis…

The model outputs below are obtained from a variety of sources without further comment, except that they are based purely on my opinion on the capability of various weather and climate models and based on the initiating agencies verification outputs and published manuscripts and as explained at our regional workshops.

1st week weather forecasts – higher confidence (all values approximate) – a summary/review of a number of national and international weather (as opposed to seasonal climate) models:
Values in mm – all values approximate.

Weekly rainfall forecast totals (note this uses a different model to the above daily model forecast output)
7/3-15/3 mostly 15-40mm in most regions, but increasing to 50-100mm in the Central Highlands and North Burnett (in thunderstorms) and between Rollingstone and Cooktown.

15/3-23/3 (much less confidence) mostly 25-40mm in Queensland and around the Top End to the Kimberleys. Falls 100mm to over 300mm between Rollingstone and Cooktown; through most of Cape York, through the Gulf Country and the northern tip of the Top End. (all probably related to the next passage of the MJO). (Nil significant remainder)..

Weekly temperature forecast anomalies.
7/3-15/3 well above normal (median) temperature anomalies in all inland regions; close to average in remaining regions, although below average temperatures between Rollingstone and Cooktown.

Seasonal Forecasts – for the longer period, the seasonal climate forecast models are indicating the following:

The SOI phase model for the end of February was “rapidly falling” , and, at this time of year, this suggests low rainfall probability values for much of northern (Gulf Country) and eastern Queensland and the Gulf Country of the NT for total rainfall between March and May. Most inland regions of Queensland have between 30%-50% probability of reaching median rainfall. A notable exception is the Maranoa and Qld/NSW border regions (and NW NT) where probability values of receiving median rainfall are about 70%. Most of Western Australia has 30-50% probability of exceeding the median.
The new BoM ‘ACCESS’ model is indicating very low rainfall (~20% probability) of above median rainfall for almost all districts. Exceptions are the Top End where values are closer to 50% and through the Kimberleys with ~50%-60% probability values and the Gascoyne Murchison with ~70% probability values of exceeding the median for this total period.
ECMWF forecast model is indicating 20%-30% probability of above median rainfall through all of Northern Australia for the March-May period. Remining regions are closer to 50%. (close to ‘climatology’ for this period).
Notably, most ocean models are still indicating a return to full El Niño conditions by the end of the southern hemisphere autumn, suggesting the relief/heavy rainfall recently being encountered in some northern regions may not persist in terms of an overall improved run of seasons for the longer term. Much better appreciation of this renewed El Niño likelihood will be available towards the end of autumn. BoM remain in ‘El Niño watch’ mode.
SOI 30-day average (as at 7/3/19) is now minus 14.6 (-14.6).
Maximum and Minimum Temperatures: For most of northern Australia for the total March to May period there are low probability values for Queensland coastal and adjacent regions, the region around Charters Towers, and along the Top End. Remining regions are indicating above normal probability values.
MJO information (also courtesy our friends in BoM/NOAA): The MJO is now in the eastern Indian Ocean and should be due over our longitudes early to mid-March.

We are very grateful to Meat and Livestock Australia and the MLA Donor Company for funding key research projects in this area of seasonal and shorter-term forecasting and to which this output belongs.

Best wishes
Roger Stone

Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
University of Southern Queensland
Toowoomba

NEWSLETTER ARCHIVE

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