NSW State Seasonal Update – December 2018

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NSW State Seasonal Update – December 2018

The NSW State Seasonal Update (SSU) for December is now available.
Much of the information in the SSU is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS)^TM.
Information about EDIS and the Combined Drought Indicator is available from the State Seasonal Update, EDIS web portal and NSW DroughtHub.
To report local conditions use DPI FarmTracker

Combined Drought Indicator for the 12 months to 31 December 2018

NSW Overview

Large parts of western and central NSW remain in the Drought or Intense Drought categories of the NSW drought monitoring framework.
The duration of the current drought event continues to build in the west of the state, where some areas, including Walgett and Coonamble, have experienced 18 months or more of extremely dry conditions given long term historical expectations.
Farm water supplies are critically low for many areas in western NSW.
The eastern seaboard and parts of the ranges and tablelands received moderate to high rainfall during December, continuing the weak to moderate recovery that started in Spring 2018.
The official forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology currently indicates that there is a 50% or greater chance of drier than median conditions over the coming forecast period (January-March), with high probability of warm conditions.

Farm Dam Water Status

Stock water levels remain critically low across large parts of NSW. Critically low areas can be identified in most regions. Regions which experienced isolated thunderstorms during mid-to-late December may have experience some increased in water levels, however these falls were not captured in the data provided here. This assessment is a collaboration between NSW DPI and Geoscience Australia’s Digital Earth Australia Program and is the first ever widespread audit of farm dam conditions in NSW. The methodology and map are a prototype that need further comprehensive field verification and refinement.

Climatic outlook and ENSO

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for the January to March period indicates:
- For rainfall:
  - an increased change of drier than normal conditions across NSW
- For temperature:
  - an increased chance of warmer than average daytime temperatures across NSW.
  - overnight temperatures also have an increased likelihood of being warmer than average across the majority of NSW.
As of 8 January 2019, the Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño Alert.