The SOI remains in neutral phase with a slight increase in SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region (+1) of the Tropical Pacific Ocean. MJO has moved through phases 5-8 in the last 7 days and model guidance is highly variable among international agencies. This mornings MJO prediction shows a rapid weakening and the chance of a weak re-emergence in the Australian area possibly late January. The remote climate drivers in the Indian Ocean and Pacific region have reduced influence as we enter summer. For more information on what the climatic indicators mean, click here. 

No surprise to see decile 1 through most cotton areas – despite useful rains from Oct-Dec in some areas.
 

Some of the highest maximum temps on record in NSW during 2018.
Create your own chart at http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp 

A very fluid situation with tropical moisture and intense storm-cells in some areas. For risk management track model guidance summary using https://meteologix.com/au and select your location.

The BOMs heatwave service showing low-intensity heat for cotton areas out to 13 January. Click on the image to access the full forecast.

No tropical cyclone activity over the Christmas – New Year period. This model updates weekly, every Wednesday morning. Save this link to favourites to track tropical hazards: origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index_image

 

The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the global tropics every 30-60 days and has proven to influence rainfall and temperature conditions.
The strength of the MJO may increase or decrease as it progresses eastwards, affecting the level of convection and influence on both precipitation and temperature. The diagram below is used by scientists to track the path of the MJO showing predicted dates through various phases. This illustrates the MJO moving in an anti-clockwise direction, weakening and retreating back into the circle in the coming days. A short YouTube cartoon explaining the MJO can be found here

Click on this 3-minute YouTube for a summary of the current ENSO conditions and the likelihood of atmosphere/ocean “coupling” through 2019. Australia is mentioned as one region to be impacted with drier-than-normal conditions during the coming winter season.
Courtesy IRI Columbia: https://iri.columbia.edu/ 

Late soaking rains at the Grant family farm “Kielli” Jimbour on the northern Darling Downs has given Jamie Grant much greater confidence of securing a crop this season now with close to a full bucket. “The storm rain in October, while some big falls were recorded – was patchy and it fell too hard and fast to convert to plant available water. I’m not keen on planting early as the January heat draws down too much moisture in a larger plant just to keep up with crop transpiration – sacrificing lint yield. The late plant just works for us here. Running into inclement weather during late autumn has never really bothered us at picking”. Pictured below is a perfect germination of Sicot 746B3F only two weeks old, planted on December 23 last year with an 18-row twin disc Gessner 27m air-seeder all on controlled traffic tram-lines for reduced compaction. Also pictured is Jamie’s motorbike in among a forest of millet used as a cover crop for next years’ cotton plant. These fields will be sprayed out this week, leaving heavy standing residue to maximise fallow efficiency over the upcoming calendar year (Pictures courtesy Jamie Grant).