CottonInfo Moisture Manager: CottonInfo Moisture Manager – Models aligned for pre-Christmas rain event as tropics come to life

CottonInfo: Moisture Manager, 10 December 2018

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The CottonInfo Moisture Manager

In this edition:

Latest weather and climate news:

  • The 30-day SOI has remained close to zero, still at odds with the Niño 3.4 index currently exceeding El Niño thresholds at +0.9. The Indian Ocean Dipole remains in a drier state but is warming rapidly and moving towards zero at the end of its life-cycle;
  • An active MJO is forecast to pass the Australian region in the coming 7-10 days and model guidance is currently divided as to the strength as it enters Phases 4-6.;
  • Cooler temperatures and no heatwaves forecast in the next 3-weeks with the SAM in positive phase; and
  • Multi-week models showing consensus for rain events at various intensity for all cotton areas prior to Christmas.

Australian rainfall (week ending 9 December 2018)

Virtually no rain in cotton areas over the past 7 days.
Rainfall maps courtesy: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp 

Summary of climate indicators

The neutral SOI (+2) is still at odds with the El Niño signal currently underway in the Niño 3.4 region (+0.9) of the Tropical Pacific Ocean. MJO guidance is currently split on the approaching MJO – whether it weakens or maintains strength as it reaches Phase 5 (Australian region). The SAM has continued in positive phase and predictions favour this to continue, improving rainfall prospects in December. The remote climate drivers in the Indian Ocean and Pacific region have reduced influence as we enter summer. For more information on what the climatic indicators mean, click here. 

Monitoring the SAM this summer crop plant

Recent research by Hendon et al, (2014) at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research found the Southern Annular Mode to be the leading mode of circulation variability through parts of inland eastern Australia where cotton is grown; particularly in the spring planting period.
 
A positive SAM has been proven to increase moisture supply into fronts and troughs forming in eastern Australia. The chart provided by Climate Prediction Center (US) shows the most recent observations of the SAM or (AAO). 

A negative SAM traditionally leads to a dry westerly circulation pattern through eastern Australian cropping areas.
 
BOM researchers Lim and Hendon (2013) found the SAM has the strongest connection with El-Niño Southern Oscillation in October and November – whereby the SAM is influenced most by El Niño or La Niña conditions.
 
Growers and advisors are encouraged to monitor the phases of the SAM together with seasonal forecasting, multi-week and short term weather models during planting. A short cartoon explaining the SAM can be found HERE. 
 

Multi-week model guidance

All models showing rain at some stage throughout cotton regions between now and Christmas day. The immediate period follwoing looks to be hot and dry.

Tropical hazards – monitoring cyclone activity

The first week showing residual moisture from Coral Sea tropical activity. This model updates weekly, every Wednesday morning. Save this link to favourites to track tropical hazards: origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index_image

Tracking the Madden-Julian Oscillation

 
The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical disturbance that moves eastward around the global tropics every 30-60 days and has proven to influence rainfall and temperature conditions.
The strength of the MJO may increase or decrease as it progresses eastwards, affecting the level of convection and influence on both precipitation and temperature. 
The diagram below is used by scientists to track the path of the MJO showing predicted dates through various phases.  This illustrates the MJO moving in an anti-clockwise direction, passing this region in phases 5 and 6. A short YouTube cartoon explaining the MJO can be found here

MJO explainer – how do I read the chart?

 
Ever wondered how to read the MJO Phase diagram? Click through to this short 3-pager for some hints and a quick MJO-101.

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