THE CLIMATE KELPIE BLOG: What’s predicted in December
An El Niño event is predicted to occur in December according to eight different international climate models. At the beginning of December, seas surface temperatures were above the El Niño threshold, but the atmosphere thresholds for El Niño were neutral meaning an El Niño had not officially occurred.
Historically, an El Niño at this time of year corresponds to drier than average conditions in northern Australia but has less impact on rainfall in the south.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, which influences climate over western and southern Australia, is predicted to return to neutral in early summer following a brief positive phase. This positive IOD occurred too late in the season to greatly influence conditions.
The east coast is showing above normal fire potential as well as parts of South Australia and Western Australia. For Tasmania the above normal fire potential zone stretches most of the east coast.
November offered some reprieve from dry conditions with areas in the west and central Australia receiving above average rainfall.
The last three-month deciles in figure 2 show that conditions are still dry for large areas of the east coast, and especially dry in the key grain growing regions of Western Australia, South Australia and the majority of Victoria and Tasmania.
Most of Queensland, northern Western Australia and parts of the Northern Territory are predicted to have below average rainfall this summer. The remainder of the country can expect average conditions with small pockets on the southern SA/WA border, the Eyre Peninsula and the NSW/VIC border predicting above average rainfall.
The outlook for December specifically, shows areas of central and south eastern Australia receiving above average rainfall. Conditions looks particularly dry for north-west WA and pockets of QLD and the NT.
Yellow has been the dominant colour in October, with both maximum and minimum temperatures above average for almost all of Australia. A combination of low rainfall and frost conditions has seen significant hay being cut in south-east grain growing regions.
Forecasts suggest the whole country will experience above average maximum temperatures over summer.
Minimum temperatures are also forecast to be average to above average, except for parts of coastal Western Australia where below average to average minimum temperatures are predicted.
Climate and Water Outlook Videos
The Bureau of Meteorology releases fortnightly outlook videos that cover all of this information. The end of month video can be found below.
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- Diversification reduces risk in a changing environment
- Dairy cows beat the heat with free alert service
- New understanding of the drivers behind hot and dry conditions over Australia’s north-east
- Getting ahead of weather extremes with better forecasting products
- ASKBILL puts sheep producers a step ahead of the season
- Taking care of the soil takes care of the sugarcane business
- The Fast Break climate newsletter reaches new audiences
- What are the models really telling us
- Old dog, new tricks – new look Climate Kelpie website unveiled at Cotton Conference
- Meet the Expert – Alister Hawksford, BoM
- Meet the expert – Neil Cliffe, Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries
- Meet the expert – Graeme Anderson, Agriculture Victoria
- Meet the expert – Jon Welsh, CottonInfo
- Meet the Expert – Dale Grey, Agriculture Victoria
- Meet the expert – Meredith Guthrie, DPIRD
- How to use the CliMate app
- December 2017 mega storm, observed outcomes
- 2017/18 summer second hottest on record
- How to read an SST Anomaly map: El Niño and La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole