THE CLIMATE KELPIE BLOG: What are the Climatedogs up to in November
Our Climatedogs drive Australia’s climate in different ways at different times of the year. There is now an approximately a 70 per cent chance of an El Niño event developing before the end of the year. Such late developing events (such as 1991 and 2009) don’t have a clear pattern as to what we could expect next. It’s likely that a positive Indian ocean dipole is currently underway, but we should expect a return to more neutral IOD conditions throughout the month.
October offered some reprieve from dry conditions with areas in the west and north east receiving above average rainfall. Below average rainfall in key agricultural regions in South Australia, Victoria, southern New South Wales and Tasmania put increasing pressure on grain, livestock and dairy producers in what has been a very dry spring.
The November to January rainfall outlook looks to be continuing the 2018 trend, with rainfall likely to be drier than average for many areas across the country.
Yellow has been the dominant colour in October, with both maximum and minimum temperatures above average for almost all of Australia. A combination of low rainfall and frost conditions has seen significant hay being cut in south-east grain growing regions.
Forecasts suggest the whole country will experience above average maximum temperatures from November to January.
Minimum temperatures are forecast to be average to above average for Australia, except for areas surrounding the Great Australian Bight and areas of Western Victoria where average minimum temperatures are predicted.
Climate and Water Outlook Videos
The Bureau of Meteorology releases fortnightly outlook videos that cover all of this information. The end of month video can be found below.
- Obituary – Barry James White
- Diversification reduces risk in a changing environment
- Dairy cows beat the heat with free alert service
- New understanding of the drivers behind hot and dry conditions over Australia’s north-east
- Getting ahead of weather extremes with better forecasting products
- ASKBILL puts sheep producers a step ahead of the season
- Taking care of the soil takes care of the sugarcane business
- The Fast Break climate newsletter reaches new audiences
- What are the models really telling us
- Old dog, new tricks – new look Climate Kelpie website unveiled at Cotton Conference
- Meet the Expert – Alister Hawksford, BoM
- Meet the expert – Neil Cliffe, Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries
- Meet the expert – Graeme Anderson, Agriculture Victoria
- Meet the expert – Jon Welsh, CottonInfo
- Meet the Expert – Dale Grey, Agriculture Victoria
- Meet the expert – Meredith Guthrie, DPIRD
- How to use the CliMate app
- December 2017 mega storm, observed outcomes
- 2017/18 summer second hottest on record
- How to read an SST Anomaly map: El Niño and La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole