CottonInfo Moisture Manager: CottonInfo Moisture Manager – A positive SAM and weak MJO provide hope for follow-up rains in November

CottonInfo: Moisture Manager, 12 November 2018

View this email in your browser

The CottonInfo Moisture Manager

In this edition:

Latest weather and climate news:

  • The 30-day SOI is creeping into more positive territory – now +5, at odds with the Niño 3.4 index currently exceeding El Niño thresholds at +0.9. The Indian Ocean Dipole remains in a drier state but forecast to trend towards neutral with basin-wide warming;
  • The MJO has become active in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal (Phase 4), moving into Phases 5-6 in the coming fortnight. Most models are predicting the phenomenon to weaken as in enters the Australian region (Phases 5-6);
  • Cooler temperatures forecast in the next 4-weeks; and
  • Multi-week models continue to show rain events for the second half of November – in line with a positive surge in the SAM feeding moisture into cotton areas and a passing weak MJO event.

Australian rainfall (week ending 11 November 2018)

Rainfall maps courtesy: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp 

Summary of climate indicators

The main story this week is the predicted positive (wet) phase of the SAM coinciding with a weak MJO event passing through Phases 5-6 (Australian region). Global models have been predicting a weakening MJO through the last 4 weeks – it continues to defy the forecast and maintain strength and continue through to the next phase. Should the strength persist, then their may be more activity in the tropics and moisture available to feed into eastern Australian weather systems. For more information on what the climatic indicators mean, click here. 

Monitoring the SAM this summer crop plant

Recent research by Hendon et al, (2014) at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research found the Southern Annular Mode to be the leading mode of circulation variability through parts of inland eastern Australia where cotton is grown; particularly in the spring planting period.
 
A positive SAM has been proven to increase moisture supply into fronts and troughs forming in eastern Australia. The chart provided by Climate Prediction Center (US) shows the most recent observations of the SAM or (AAO). 

A negative SAM traditionally leads to a dry westerly circulation pattern through eastern Australian cropping areas.
 
BOM researchers Lim and Hendon (2013) found the SAM has the strongest connection with El-Niño Southern Oscillation in October and November – whereby the SAM is influenced most by El Niño or La Niña conditions.
 
Growers and advisors are encouraged to monitor the phases of the SAM together with seasonal forecasting, multi-week and short term weather models during planting. A short cartoon explaining the SAM can be found HERE. 
 

Multi-week model guidance

Most models showing rain over the next 4 weeks with the exception of the JMA. Those remaining models showing rainfall have rain/showers predicted every week for the next 4 weeks across most areas. Temperatures should be cooler over this period also.

Seasonal climate – what happened? (Aug-Oct)

Warmer through all areas. Above average rain through SE Q’ld growing areas. Dry in CW and Sth NSW.
 

Seasonal Models – what can we learn? (Aug-Oct)

A dry signal coming from most global models through the period (issued 23 July below). All models predicted warmer temperatures. The UK Met forecast was the closest to picking up the planting rains through SE Q’ld and dry conditions throughout NSW – and claims 1st place.

Tropical hazards – monitoring cyclone activity

As the monsoon commences, the chart below shows the probability of heavy rainfall and cyclone activity across the Indian Ocean and Tropical Pacific Ocean. The MJO is currently active in the Indian Ocean (top panel) with cyclones developing in the Bay of Bengal. This model updates every Wednesday morning. Save this link to favourites to track tropical hazards: origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index_image

Mixed fortunes for cotton seedlings

 
Those that have been lucky enough to receive planting rains have reported good germination and population counts. The top image shows an irrigated stand of Sicot 746B3F at “Redmill” Moree in the Gwydir Valley, planted 16 October and has since received 15mm of rainfall . In contrast, the severe hot, northerly wind and heat has taken its toll on a freshly germinated plant stand in the Lower Namoi (bottom image). Photos courtesy Alice Devlin (CSD) and Janelle Montgomery (CottonInfo).

Share

Tweet

Forward

Copyright © 2018 CottonInfo, All rights reserved.
CottonInfo is the Australian cotton industry’s joint extension program; a joint initiative of CRDC, Cotton Australia and CSD. You are receiving this email as you are on the cotton industry’s database, managed by CRDC.

Our mailing address is:

CottonInfo

c/o CRDC
2 Lloyd St

Narrabri, NSW 2390

Australia

Add us to your address book

     

CottonInfo accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any material contained in this publication. Additionally, CottonInfo disclaims all liability to any person in respect of anything, and of the consequences of anything, done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance, whether wholly or partly, on any information contained in this publication. Material included in this publication is made available on the understanding that CottonInfo is not providing professional advice. If you intend to rely on any information provided in this publication, you should obtain your own appropriate professional advice. Header photo courtesy Janet Dampney.

NEWSLETTER ARCHIVE

HAVE A CLIMATE-SCIENCE QUESTION OR AN IDEA FOR A BLOG POST?

Our team of climate scientists are ready with the answers! Contact us >