NSW State Seasonal Update – October 2018

The NSW State Seasonal Update (SSU) for October is now available.
Much of the information in the SSU is sourced from the NSW DPI Enhanced Drought Information System (EDIS)^TM.
Information about EDIS and the Combined Drought Indicator is available from the State Seasonal Update, EDIS web portal and NSW DroughtHub.
To report local conditions use DPI FarmTracker

Combined Drought Indicator for the 12 months to 31 October 2018

NSW Overview

The pattern of seasonal conditions at the end of October 2018 is highly complex.
While rainfall has bought relief to many areas, particularly in the east, it has come as storms and there is currently a high degree or variability between and within regions.
There are strong signs of agronomic recovery in eastern NSW, however soil moiste has not significantly recharged in all areas.
Although there has been improvement in conditions in the east, the majority of the state remains under drought conditions and current estimates place up to 30% of the state as Drought Affected, 50% in Drought and 19% in Intense Drought.
The official forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology currently indicates that there is a 50% percent chance of achieving medium rainfall over the coming forecast period (November-January), with high probability of warm conditions.

Field Observations

A number of field observations have been taken by farmers and the community during September and October. These provide a degree of corroboration for the CDI mapping, where reports of severe and very severe drought made in the field correspond to the areas mapped in Drought and Intense Drought.
The observations are made available through a new application called FarmTracker, which currently has a small user (testing) group of 60. As more users and observations become available, an in-depth verification of the drought indicators will be possible in future State Seasonal Updates.

Climatic outlook and ENSO

The Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal outlook for the November to January period indicates:
- For rainfall:
  - a near equal chance of wetter or drier than average conditions across NSW
- For temperature:
  - an increased chance of warmer than average daytime temperatures across NSW.
  - overnight temperatures also have an increased likelihood of being warmer than average across the majority of NSW.
As of 23 October 2018, the Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño Alert, with a 70% chance of El Niño forming in 2018. Six of the eight models predict El Niño thresholds will be met or exceeded in November.