Greg Hayes
Farm: Carinya
Region: Talgarno, north-east Victoria
Commodity: Beef
Farming area: 190 hectares
Rainfall: 270-1000 mm per year
Email: ggbbhayes@gmail.com
Phone: 02 6020 1157
From what I have learnt over these last 10 years, it is possible to continue to make a good living out of a more variable climate if you remain flexible with your business and take advantage of favourable conditions when they arise.
See what Greg has to say about:
- Dealing with long-term climate change
- Re-aligning calving time with changing climate conditions
- De-stocking early during the drought
- Using seasonal rainfall forecasts to manage stock numbers
- Taking advantage of more summer rain
- Maintaining groundcover by changing stock movement
Dealing with long-term climate change
My farm is located about 30 kilometres east of Wodonga, in the district of Talgarno. I run a fairly small beef farm (100 breeding cows), which is typical for the area. I aim to produce good quality beef as sustainably and cost-effectively as I can.
The property is adjacent to Lake Hume reservoir and comprises a mix of river flats with a smaller proportion of hill country. When I moved to the area, it was quite attractive living next to so much water. I didn’t know that the lake was going to be empty most of the time.
The climate is fairly temperate at the foot of the Victorian highlands.
Summers used to be warm and dry, and we would get an autumn break in late April/early May, which would supply enough rain to get the pasture going before the cold winters began. Winter would be wet and cold, then we’d get more favourable pasture-growing conditions in spring, which would produce enough moisture and feed to last the summer.
However, in the last 13 years, our autumns have been failing. We’ve been having either no autumn rain at all or rain in very late May or early June.
Our winters have become slightly warmer and our springs have been finishing early. Instead of running into November, they’ve been petering out in early October. This has significantly impacted on my hay and silage production, which tends to tide me over in drier conditions.
We are also now getting more rain in summer, mainly from large storms. These have been a welcome change. However, their sudden impact means we usually can’t take advantage of them and anybody with bare ground will lose soil from erosion, particularly on unprotected hills.
While these weather conditions may be a form of variability, long-term climate change forecasts suggest that we are more likely to face these conditions well into the future. If this is the case, then we may not be that badly affected, provided we make some changes to how we farm.
Warmer conditions, especially during winter, will promote more pasture growth. Differences in the seasonal pattern of rainfall will mean I will have to change the way I manage my operations, which I have done already by changing how I manage my pastures and calving program.
From what I have learnt over these last 10 years, it is possible to continue to make a good living out of a more variable climate if you remain flexible with your business and take advantage of favourable conditions when they arise.
If I happen to get good rain followed by warmer conditions I can grow extra feed. This can allow me to hold onto stock for longer and carry them to heavier weights returning a better sale value, or to replenish my hay and silage stocks.
Re-aligning calving time with changing climate conditions
Until a couple of years ago, I used to always start my calving program in late January/early February. With reliable autumn and spring rains, there was plenty of pasture constantly produced to fatten the new calves and recuperate the breeders through autumn, winter and spring. I would then prepare the breeders for calving again during the spring, and sell the calves after 10 months.
Over the last 10 years, the failing autumn rains and erratic spring rains have severely impacted on my program. Some years, my breeders were pregnant at a time when there wasn’t much feed around because we had had a dry spring.
This meant I had to bring in feed or use my silage through spring and summer. Sometimes we didn’t get the autumn break, so I had to continue feeding them until we finally received some good rain to get my pastures going.
That was a very stressful and expensive exercise, so in extreme dry periods I chose to de-stock rather than keep on feeding out.
I’ve now moved my calving program to late winter/early spring, which I’m pretty confident about.
While the spring rains have been erratic, they have been slightly more reliable than the autumn rains. Therefore there has been sufficient pasture for the newly born calves to feed on during spring and summer.
If the autumn rains don’t come, I’m already planning to sell them by that time. This also leaves me enough pasture for my breeders to feed on, until they calve again in late winter.
De-stocking early during the drought
During the 2002-03 and 2006-07 droughts, I set out a plan to de-stock progressively. On a calendar I marked certain trigger dates throughout the year. If our rainfall was below a target level when we reached the dates, I sold around 15 per cent of my stock, starting with store stock.
The benefit of doing this was that I was able to sell early and avoid buying feed in. Financially I was way ahead of where I would have been if I’d kept thinking ‘maybe it’ll rain and we can just hang on.’
Greg discusses the value of de-stocking during a drought
In 2008-09, I took my de-stocking plan to the extreme and sold off all of my stock, including breeders. I had exhausted my silage pits and was not keen on buying in feed at excessive prices.
I had 20 years of breeding in that stock, which bought me a fair price. A lot of people said that I would not be able to replace that quality of stock, but I thought it was a sensible sale. At the end of the day, I didn’t want to place the stock, my land or myself under the stress of barely surviving another drought.
I calculated that if I had kept my stock, I would have lost about $50,000 from having to buy feed.
Because I had totally de-stocked, my pastures were under less stress and survived the drought in good shape.
When the drought broke, it gave me a head start. Because I had a considerable amount of pasture for stock to feed on, I was able to buy stock earlier than farmers who were simply trying to recover from the drought.
In the end, I don’t think there was a bad consequence to it.
Using seasonal rainfall forecasts to manage stock numbers
I have been using seasonal rainfall outlooks to adjust stock numbers to more appropriately match feed supply and demand, not just in summer, but throughout the year.
I aim to have at least one third of my carrying capacity in the form of cattle that I can trade.
I hold on to them when the seasonal outlook is good and sell them early when it is not.
I use Rainman Streamflow a lot, to find out, given the current phase of the Southern Oscillation Index, what other years were most like that in the past. I now use Meat and Livestock Australia’s ‘Rainfall to pasture growth outlook’ tool.
As well, Victoria’s Department of Primary Industries produce a newsletter called The Fast Break, which gives an outline of what eight different climate models are suggesting for the season ahead.
I couple all that with fairly detailed pasture budgeting.
Taking advantage of more summer rain
Like my calving program, I’ve changed the way I manage my paddocks and pastures based on the change in climate. While our autumn rains have been failing, we have been receiving more frequent rains during our summers, so I’m trying to take advantage of that.
First of all, I am making sure that I have more pasture that can respond well to summer rains. This includes increasing the number of perennial and native perennial grasses, particularly on the hill country. They can maintain soil cover year round, if grazed appropriately.
Maintaining groundcover by changing stock movement
I’ve also become very interested in my soil’s structure and health. I have looked at ways to decrease soil compaction and to boost the persistence of my perennial pastures. To do that, I’m changing the way I manage my stock.
I use a form of time-controlled grazing: I have all the stock together in a relatively small area for a short period of time, and then rest the paddock for 3 to 4 months. This gives the paddock a chance to establish deep-rooted perennial grasses, which help break up compacted soil.
In the case of severe summer storms, which is how I receive much of my summer rain, the grass cover reduces erosion and run-off, allowing more rain to soak into the ground.
Another benefit from this way of management is that it allows me to keep ground cover in all my paddocks. In hilly country like this, it is very important to not have bare ground.
Rainfall from severe storms will wash away uncovered soils, which end up in Lake Hume and further down the Murray. I don’t want to lose my soil, and I don’t want to pollute my waterways or the water reservoir for southern Australia.